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May 11 2019

Abdullah Aydoğan: Irregularities have benefited the ruling alliance, not opposition parties as Erdogan says

Abdullah Aydoğan, Ph.D., is a research scholar at the Baker Institute for Public Policy at Rice University and a lecturer of political methodology at Columbia University’s political science department. Aydogan spoke to Ahval's Ilhan Tanir to discuss his latest column published on Washington Post discussing March 31 local elections.

 

"Whichever party mobilises base more effectively will win"

300,000 CHP, 400,000 AKP voters in Istanbul did not go to vote on March 31.

Whichever party mobilises base more effectively will win

If AKP convinces its stay-at-home voters, it can win Istanbul rerun

Ruling alliance is known as ‘anti-Kurdish’ but inexplicably increased its vote by 3 percent in pre-dominantly Kurdish regions

District-level distribution of electoral irregularities strongly coincide with distribution of the increase in the vote share of ruling coalition, not the opposition.

If Turkish security personnel are transported to Istanbul to vote, there is no mechanism to check
Imamoğlu needs to continue to reach out to former AKP voters to win a second time